South Valley, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

374
FXUS65 KABQ 130523 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1023 PM MST Tue Nov 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 929 PM MST Tue Nov 12 2024

 - Breezy southwest to west winds today could create nuisance
   crosswinds and patchy blowing snow in areas with snowpack.

 - Wetter and cooler weather looks increasingly likely Sunday
   through Tuesday of next week. Significant snow accumulations
   above 8,500ft may create snowpacked roadways in the mountains.
   Rain falling onto snowpack may increase the risk of flooding.
   Rain may change to snow in the lower elevations on Tuesday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 322 PM MST Tue Nov 12 2024

Breezy to locally windy southwest winds will continue through the
evening for much of NM, decreasing into the night. Cooler
temperatures return tomorrow, but a gradual warming trend will occur
from Wednesday through Friday, and through Saturday for eastern
areas. A storm system will impact NM late in the weekend and into
next week, bringing snow to the mountains and rain to the lower
elevations. Continued unsettled weather could continue into the
middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 322 PM MST Tue Nov 12 2024

Windy conditions have reached much of the forecast area this
afternoon. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph are present now and these winds
will steadily veer out of the west then northwest thru the afternoon
and evening hours. A few areas lee of the central mountain chain
like Ruidoso are seeing slightly stronger wind speeds of 40 to 45
mph. Winds taper off overnight as the main trough axis slides
eastward over KS/OK/TX. Cooler and drier air fill in behind the
surface Pacific cold front tonight keeping overnight lows rather
chilly. Lows fall into the teens in the higher elevations with 20s
at many lower elevation areas, with 30s across the eastern plains.
Wednesday sees mostly clear conditions and a relative temperature
drop compared to today`s readings. Highs will range from the 40s
across northern NM to 50s in the lower elevations, and 60s in the
eastern plains along and south of U.S Highway 60.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 322 PM MST Tue Nov 12 2024

Calm, clear and dry conditions are expected Thursday and Friday and
a bit into Saturday. Our next storm system comes in the form of a
deep upper level trough pushing its way into the Great Basin on
Saturday. Model and ensemble guidance have come into better
agreement on positioning and strength of this storm, but the finer
details are still uncertain. Breezy to locally windy conditions are
likely to begin Friday and continue into Saturday as a ~150kt jet
streak sets up over NM, oriented southwest-northeast, and will drive
surface winds up a bit. The main show begins when the trough cuts
off from the main polar jet and digs into a plume of subtropical
moisture, advecting it into NM late Saturday into Sunday. Scattered
to widespread rain across the lower elevations and mountain snow
will be the main impact with this system, with 700mb temperatures
hovering around freezing near the higher terrain in northern NM. A
cause of concern with within the precipitation is the possibility of
this becoming a rain-on-snow event, which could drive up the risk of
flooding in areas that have seen excessive snowfall and/or flood
prone areas with melting snow runoff. Uncertainty lies in how much
snow is able to melt before the event begins, where the rain/snow
line will settle, and what locations will see higher rainfall totals
and rates. Further forecasts will begin to narrow in on the finer
details, but a late weekend/early next week storm is the next big
story.

Past the effects of the first system, model guidance is suggesting a
second, colder trough to dig into NM next Tuesday, which would bring
more snowfall, especially to lower elevations, as 700mb temperatures
would likely be several degrees cooler than our first system.
However, confidence in this is shaky as ensemble cluster guidance
shows a variety of different solutions taking place during the
middle of next week. A trend between clusters does have a broad
trough across much of the western/central US, so while details are
fuzzy, a cooler and wetter weather pattern is favored to exist
through the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 929 PM MST Tue Nov 12 2024

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period with mostly light winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 PM MST Tue Nov 12 2024

Windy conditions are present this afternoon with widespread gusts of
25 to 35 mph, and a few peak gusts up to 45 mph possible along and
just lee of ridgetops. Winds taper off tonight past sunset and thru
Wednesday and Thursday leaving behind poor ventilation again.
Northwesterly winds at ridgetops will be the last areas to taper off
tonight. Southwesterly winds begin to return Friday, and moreso
Saturday ahead of the next storm system forecast to come thru NM
Sunday and Monday. A much warmer source for this next system
promises higher snow levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  25  48  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  13  50  16  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  21  48  23  56 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  17  54  19  66 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  21  53  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  18  54  21  61 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  20  58  25  65 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  28  55  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  24  56  28  62 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  18  66  23  67 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  28  68  32  70 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  13  47  20  53 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  26  45  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  25  48  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  18  45  23  51 /   5   0   0   0
Red River.......................  14  40  21  47 /   5   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................   9  43  10  50 /   5   0   0   0
Taos............................  16  46  18  53 /   5   0   0   0
Mora............................  17  49  24  58 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  22  51  22  57 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  26  45  29  53 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  23  46  24  53 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  31  51  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  29  53  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  26  56  25  60 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  30  53  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  21  55  22  60 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  28  53  28  58 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  21  55  20  60 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  28  55  28  58 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  22  55  22  60 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  30  48  32  55 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  29  53  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  31  60  31  62 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  26  46  29  54 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  27  48  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  23  47  23  56 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  20  49  17  57 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  24  48  26  56 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  24  52  27  58 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  24  52  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  31  60  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  29  58  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  22  44  25  59 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  15  46  18  62 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  12  44  14  60 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  22  50  25  62 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  33  49  31  65 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  21  48  20  58 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  30  58  28  68 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  32  57  31  67 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  31  57  31  70 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  36  61  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  36  61  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  35  61  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  41  66  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  36  64  33  70 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  31  66  33  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...11