South Valley, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

166
FXUS65 KABQ 141151 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
551 AM MDT Thu Aug 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 2 AM MDT Thu Aug 14 2025

- Minor risk of flash flooding below recent burn scars today, then
  the risk will become moderate Friday, high this weekend, and
  remain moderate to high through the first half of the coming
  work week.

- The coverage of showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase
  over central and western areas today as monsoon moisture begins
  to increase along the Arizona and New Mexico border. Rich
  monsoon moisture will then move over central and western New
  Mexico Friday, then spread to more of the forecast area and
  remain in place through the first half of the coming week. There
  will also be a risk of isolated flash flooding outside of burn
  scars Friday through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 110 AM MDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Water vapor satellite imagery at this late hour depicts increasing
moisture over NM with a disturbance moving slowly northward out of
Mexico over far southeast AZ. A moderately strong high pressure
system aloft will finish tracking eastward along the CO/NM border
today, then exit eastward along the OK/KS border tonight,
allowing the disturbance to continue tracking northward across
eastern AZ just west of the NM/AZ border. This disturbance,
embedded in a north-bound fetch of monsoon moisture, will make
NM`s west central and southwest mountains the most active part of
our forecast area for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening. Elsewhere, scattered to isolated showers and
thunderstorms are forecast as far east as the east slopes of the
central mountain chain. Unlike western areas where PWATs will
gradually climb near and above the 30-year average today, PWATs
across the east are forecast to drop near 75% of average with dry
weather expected there. There will probably be some gusty virga
showers and dry thunderstorms in the mix over northwest and north
central NM today, with a few of the better developed cells
producing localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts up to 45 mph.

Friday afternoon and evening, monsoon moisture will surge
northward over central and western NM with additional disturbances
embedded in the flow helping to trigger scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms. PWATS are forecast to climb near 150 percent of
normal along the western NM border, where there will be a risk of
locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding. PWATs along
the east slopes of the central mountain chain are forecast to
climb near 100% of normal on Friday, introducing a moderate risk
of flash flooding below recent burn scars. Some storms will
probably also move onto the eastern plains during the evening,
then spottier and lighter activity will continue to be possible
across southern and western parts of the forecast area after
midnight as a shortwave trough ejecting northeastward across the
Great Basin shifts the monsoon moisture surge gradually farther
east across NM. After high temperatures varying from a few to
around 8 degrees above 1991-2020 average across the forecast area
today, readings will fall a few to 7 degrees on Friday reaching
below average across portions of central and western NM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 110 AM MDT Thu Aug 14 2025

The upper high will broaden and build as it shifts over the
Mississippi River Valley over the weekend, then it is forecast to
recenter over CO during the first half of the coming work week.
Thus, a southwest to northeast fetch of monsoon moisture will
continue to stream over the bulk of the forecast area through the
weekend with PWATs generally climbing near to well over 1 inch.
Then, PWATs are forecast to remain high through the first half of
the work week. This will cause the risk of locally heavy rainfall
and isolated occurrences of flash flooding to persist from day to
day. A south southeast low level return flow will keep the
moisture elevated even as the upper high begins to recenter north
of NM on Monday. A moist backdoor front will then invigorate
showers and thunderstorms as it moves southwest and westward
through the forecast area late Tuesday and Tuesday night;
potentially with a disturbance embedded in the periphery of the
ridge aloft. Models have been varying from run to run on whether
or not drier air behind Tuesday night`s disturbance will decrease
thunderstorm activity for Wednesday. At this time that looks most
likely to occur along NM`s eastern border, with another healthy
crop of showers and storms farther west. With all the moisture in
place, high temperatures will trend near and below average this
weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 AM MDT Thu Aug 14 2025

There will be an uptick in thunderstorm coverage this afternoon
and evening with scattered to isolated, and light, showers and
thunderstorms from the east slopes of the central mountain chain
westward. Some gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms will be
in the mix, especially north of I-40, with localized, brief, and
erratic, microburst wind gusts potentially near 40 KT. A
disturbance moving northward across southeast AZ will produce more
numerous storms with broader wetting footprints over the
southwest and west central mountains (south of I-40) during the
afternoon and evening. Dry weather is forecast areawide by late
this evening. High temperatures east of the continental divide
will climb as much as 8 degrees above average this afternoon,
making density altitude an important consideration for aviation
operations near complex terrain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 110 AM MDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Critically low minimum humidities will linger over west central
and northwest areas through today. A more traditional flow of
monsoon moisture is forecast to set up Friday into the weekend
with the most widespread and heaviest precip over central and
western areas on Friday afternoon and evening, then everywhere
except the Four Corners Saturday through Sunday. Monsoon moisture
looks to remain in place during the first half of next week with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms returning daily to
much of the forecast area. Pockets of critically low humidity
return to the forecast near the Four Corners during the coming
work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  95  65  88  64 /  10  10  30  30
Dulce...........................  92  50  88  49 /  20  20  50  50
Cuba............................  90  57  85  55 /  20  20  60  50
Gallup..........................  90  55  83  52 /  30  40  70  40
El Morro........................  86  56  80  54 /  60  40  80  60
Grants..........................  90  56  84  54 /  50  40  80  50
Quemado.........................  86  58  80  56 /  70  50  80  60
Magdalena.......................  88  63  84  61 /  40  20  80  50
Datil...........................  84  57  79  56 /  60  30  80  50
Reserve.........................  90  54  86  53 /  80  40  80  50
Glenwood........................  94  59  89  59 /  70  40  80  50
Chama...........................  85  50  81  47 /  30  20  60  50
Los Alamos......................  87  63  84  60 /  30  20  60  50
Pecos...........................  88  59  84  56 /  30  20  50  40
Cerro/Questa....................  87  56  84  54 /  40  20  60  30
Red River.......................  77  48  74  46 /  40  20  60  20
Angel Fire......................  80  42  77  42 /  40  10  50  20
Taos............................  89  53  86  53 /  30  20  40  30
Mora............................  84  53  80  51 /  30  20  50  30
Espanola........................  95  61  92  59 /  20  20  40  40
Santa Fe........................  89  64  85  60 /  20  20  40  40
Santa Fe Airport................  92  61  88  59 /  20  20  40  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  94  70  91  67 /  10  20  40  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  95  68  92  66 /  10  20  40  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  98  67  94  65 /  10  20  30  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  97  68  93  66 /  10  20  40  50
Belen...........................  98  64  93  63 /  10  10  30  40
Bernalillo......................  97  66  93  64 /  10  20  40  50
Bosque Farms....................  98  64  94  62 /  10  10  30  40
Corrales........................  98  67  94  65 /  10  20  40  50
Los Lunas.......................  98  65  94  64 /  10  10  30  40
Placitas........................  94  67  89  64 /  10  20  40  40
Rio Rancho......................  97  67  93  65 /  10  20  40  50
Socorro.........................  98  68  94  66 /  20  20  50  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  89  62  84  59 /  10  20  40  40
Tijeras.........................  91  63  88  61 /  10  20  40  40
Edgewood........................  91  58  87  56 /  10  10  40  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  92  56  88  55 /  10  10  40  40
Clines Corners..................  86  60  81  58 /  20  10  30  30
Mountainair.....................  89  60  85  58 /  10  10  50  40
Gran Quivira....................  88  60  84  58 /  20  10  50  40
Carrizozo.......................  90  65  86  63 /  20  10  50  50
Ruidoso.........................  82  60  79  58 /  30  10  60  40
Capulin.........................  87  58  84  58 /  10  20  10   5
Raton...........................  90  55  87  56 /  20  10  20   5
Springer........................  93  56  90  57 /  20  10  20   5
Las Vegas.......................  88  56  84  55 /  20  20  40  20
Clayton.........................  94  66  93  66 /   0  10   0   5
Roy.............................  92  61  88  61 /  10  10   5  10
Conchas.........................  98  67  95  66 /   5  10   5  20
Santa Rosa......................  94  64  90  63 /   5  10  10  30
Tucumcari.......................  96  68  92  66 /   0  10   0  10
Clovis..........................  99  69  95  68 /   0   5   0  10
Portales........................  99  69  96  69 /   0   5   0  10
Fort Sumner.....................  98  68  94  68 /   0  10   5  20
Roswell......................... 102  71  98  71 /   0   5   5  20
Picacho.........................  94  64  90  64 /  10   5  30  30
Elk.............................  90  61  87  60 /  20   5  40  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44